Dividend Forecast Accuracy

Our primary focus

The accuracy of our forecasts is our number one priority; it’s so important that we have developed an internal metric to precisely calculate and measure its improvement over time.

We strive for transparency so the accuracy score is published every day directly to this website, and you can see today’s score by visiting the LIVE accuracy score section

The Dividend Accuracy Score is applied to every individual forecast when it is matched to a dividend declaration.
Every day all the declared dividends accuracy scores are combined to produce the day’s score which the analysts and product team review to determine how it can be improved.

The individual dividend accuracy score is comprised of:

  • Amount Accuracy 45% weighting
  • Ex-Date Accuracy 30% weighting
  • Record Date Accuracy 20% weighting
  • Pay Date Accuracy 5% weighting

The amount accuracy is calculated as a percentage variance between forecast and declared amounts; the date scores are based on an exponential decay formula at 5% per day.

The following example illustrates how a declared dividend was scored against our estimate:

Field Forecast Declared Difference Score Weighted
Amount 13.5c 12c 1.5c 88.2% 39.7%
Ex-Div Date 16th May 9th May 7 days 69.8% 20.9%
Record Date 17th May 10th May 7 days 69.8% 14.0%
Pay Date 31st May 26th May 5 days 77.4% 3.9%
Total         78.4%

Dividends which are declared where we have no estimate, and dividends for which we have an estimate but are cut are scored as zero.

Each day all dividend scores are combined and the average is calculated to produce our daily accuracy score.

On the LIVE section of our site you will see that we place our accuracy stats at the forefront to highlight the change and improvements over time.

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