Methodology

Forecasting dividends accurately at scale

At its core Woodseer is a system which automatically forecasts future dividend amounts and dates for a wide range of securities globally.

Our team of financial analysts are heavily involved in defining their strategy and the rules they follow when making estimates. This insight is then codified into our proprietary software algorithm and continuously iterated upon to maximise accuracy.

Scale is achieved by applying these rules across a large database of financial information to produce forecasts which are then checked and augmented by our analysts every day.

Our corporate actions database extends back to 2012 and the algorithm uses this as the basis to identify patterns and construct an accurate model of each individual security’s dividend payment schedule and yield.
These patterns are then projected forward to produce individual dividend forecasts at least two full fiscal years ahead.

The database of corporate actions is enhanced with input from our internal Limeburner Natural Language Processing (NLP) system to read and interpret declarations and announcements from financial reports and press releases.

Changes in issued share capital on individual securities is factored in by incorporating:

  • Rights Issues
  • Consolidations
  • Bonus Issues
  • Subdivisions

Further changes to securities are handled too, such as:

  • Year end changes
  • Dividend frequency change e.g. from annually to quarterly
  • Declaration currency change
  • Mergers, buyouts, delistings and new listings

Market-specific rules and patterns are codified, such as:

  • The shift in settlement period resulting in changes to the gap between ex-date and record date
  • Exchange-specific rules e.g. fixed record day for UK securities
  • Date rules for certain countries e.g. Korean and Japanese dividend ex- and record dates
  • Tax treatment for dividends e.g. Australian franked and unfranked dividends
  • Treatment of bank holidays in various jurisdictions

Constant Innovation

Woodseer is a product under active development with a tight feedback loop between analysts and developers.
Our universe of covered securities keeps expanding as our understanding of each market grows and we refine our algorithm.

All estimates are recorded and matched to their corresponding dividend declaration, which are then scored across several metrics.
This accuracy score is monitored and regularly analysed to identify potential improvements, and enhancements to the algorithm are applied every day; resulting in measurable growth to our forecast accuracy.

Our daily accuracy score is the metric guiding our product innovation

You can read more about our accuracy

Data Quality

In the spirit of automation Woodseer applies a number of checks for quality and accuracy to our data set, and anomalies are prioritized and flagged for our analysts to investigate and remedy.
This process ensures the highest possible data quality is provided to our clients at all times.

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